The New Global Context

Is the US in Decline or an Unrivalled Global Hegemon?

A Uni-Multipolar System?

The New Global Context

The post-Cold War world is very different from the bi-polar era, but there has been considerable disagreement over the nature of the new context. Was it unipolar or multipolar in character? Nevertheless, the post-Cold War era was distinctive in three respects:

1. The end of the Cold War meant there were no longer military confrontations of a system threatening kind.

2. With the break-up of the Soviet Union, the US has been left as the world’s only superpower.

3. The post-Cold War world has been subject to deepening globalization, a terms which refers to the rapid development of complex interconnections between societies, institutions, cultures and individuals on a world-wide basis.

The Distribution of International Power

The historian Paul Kennedy argued in the late 1980s that “it befell no power to retain a postion of permanent hegemony.” He implied that the US was no exception to this historical trend and would face increased competition from rising powers like Japan, Germany and China in the post-Cold War era. But these challenges to US dominance have yet to eventuate:

1. Japan experienced a stagnating economy during 1990s and lacks an ideological sense of mission to become a global player.

2. A newly united Germany also had substantial economic problems and defined its international role within the EU rather than outside it.

3. China has had the fastest growing economy in the world, but is already facing problems with rapid modernisation, including possible political instability.

Thus, at present, there does not seem to be any credible challenge to the US’s position as ‘top dog’ in the post-Cold War era. Declinists like Kennedy seem to have overlooked the structural difference between the US and other great powers in history. The US is a democracy and, unlike authoritarian powers, has a built-in capacity for innovation and renewal.

A Uni-Multipolar System?

A uni-polar international system would have one superpower, no significant major powers, and many minor powers. As a result, the lone superpower could effectively resolve key international issues on its own. A multipolar system would have several major powers of comparable strength that would have to co-operate or compete with each other to decide important international questions. The post-Cold War international system does not seem to fully correspond to either of these two models. A hybrid, uni-multipolar system appears to be a more accurate conception. The post-Cold War world has a superpower, the US, with pre-eminence in every domain of power (economic, military, diplomatic, ideological, technological and cultural). At the same time, the effective settlement of international issues, like the post-war reconstruction of post-Saddam Iraq, cannot be determined by the US alone, but requires some combination of other major powers and UN support.