Demographic Revolutions
The theme of this lecture was the long-term consequences of the Columbian exchange and rapid growth of Eurasian populations from 1500-1850.
Malthus and the problem of demography
In 1798 Rev. Thomas Malthus published his Essay on the Principle of Population. This essay reflected changing views of population growth, the power of the state, and responded to the long-term result of the Columbian exchange in Eurasia: sustained population growth. Prior to Malthus, Europeans generally believed that population growth was positive, allowing the development of strong economies, militaries, and states. E.g. Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (1776) argued that population growth was an indicator of economic prosperity. Malthus contested this view, arguing that humans were carnal beings and without proper moral restraints, humans would produce large families. In short, population typically increases geometrically while food supply increases arithmetically.
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Population Growth |
1 |
2 |
4 |
8 |
16 |
32 |
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Food Production |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
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Ultimately, Malthus argued, the divergence between food production and population growth would lead to cataclysmic famines and poverty, destabilizing society. For him, the only way ahead was through strict moral regulation, sexual restraint, and the small Christian family as a unit of accumulation (The "Malthusian Family"). This argument remains highly contentious today: but what is clear is that Malthus was responding to recent patterns in world history.
Columbian Exchange
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Old -> New |
New -> Old |
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Diseases |
Smallpox, Measles, Plague, Typhus, Influenza, Yellow Fever, Diptheria, Scarlet Fever |
Syphilis |
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Animals |
Horses, Cattle, Pigs, Sheep, Goats, Donkeys, Mules, Black Rats, Honeybees, Cockroaches |
Turkeys, Guinea Pigs |
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Plants |
Wheat, Sugar, Barley, Coffee, Rice, Dandelions and other weeds |
Maize, Beans, Peanuts, Potato, Sweet Potato, Manioc, Squash, Papaya, Guava, Tomato, Avocado, Pineapple, Chilli Pepper, Cocoa |
Population growth
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Europe
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China
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Reconstructing demographic trends
This process largely depends on state records, especially census materials. These were unevenly produced in early modern Eurasia and generally, they were tied to the levying of taxes. The Richest extant records are from China and England. With regard to the demographic change in Europe: demographic recovery from the plague (1347-1350) was slow, with the first sustained period of population growth coming after 1500. From 1500, life expectancy increased slowly as did fertility. Despite temporary decline in the mid-17th century, European population doubled between 1500 and 1700. There was steady growth during the eighteenth century, and then spectacular growth during the 19th century. With regard to the demographic change in China: prior to 1500 Chinese population relatively stable at just under 100 million, making up 20-25% of total global population. 1500-1750 sustained gradual population increase before the population doubles in the c18th, before increasing from 300 million to 430 million in the fifty years from 1800. Then growth slowed, before accelerating again during the 20th century. Thus, at a fundamental level, there was a common pattern of population growth in Eurasia between 1500-1850: this is termed the 'demographic revolution'. This provides key contexts for urbanization, industrialization and new forms of migration and empire-building. This process drove the emergence of great cities.
Explaining growth
One explanation is climactic change: the deterioration of the climate (there was a mini ice-age) between 1200-1600 halted and reversed from the 18th century. There were major El Nino incidents in 1790s. Warmer temperatures extended growing seasons, made marginal land more productive, allowed crops to be grown at a higher altitude (an increase of 1.5 degrees allows land 1500 ft higher to be cultivated) and increased agrarian output. This increased output, reduced death rates and probably increased fertility. Also, the increased strength of states meant that they were able to provide increasingly organized responses to famine: the Chinese state, for example, operated an empire-wide system of granaries that supplemented local charitable granaries run by local elites. While food shortages and rioting did occur, the state was able to respond quickly by moving its surpluses from one region to another. This contrasts with Europe in 1771-2, when a third of the the population died because of a problem with the distribution of food. There was also increased efficiency of international trade in food goods, which meant that resources were more mobile and flexible. Improved communication and transport systems began to alleviate the effects of famine, helping to reduce death rate.
The role of 'New World' food plants
The most important factor, however, was improved nutrition. A rapid spurt of growth during the 19th century reflected the impact of new industrial technologies in agrarian production, but population growth predated this. The role of 'New World' food plants was absolutely central throughout Eurasia. They not only transformed the nature of European, South Asian and Chinese cuisine, but had profound social and demographic consequences. Key crops: potato, maize, peanut, tomato were all particularly nutritious and had high yields per acre, both in mass and (especially) calorific value. Tomatoes, and chili peppers were important in enriching vitamin-deficient European diets. Moreover, they had profound economic benefits. The peanut, for example, tolerates poor sandy soils ill-suited for most other food plants. Potatoes were particularly important because of their versatility and high yield: allowed more food to be produced from smaller plots of land, central in underpinning Eurasian population growth. The potato was sent back from Peru and Bolivia and was consumed in Spain by 1576. In 1586, Sir Walter Raleigh sent Potatoes back to his Irish estate at Youghal for cultivation. Initially in Ireland and elsewhere in Europe, Potatoes were used as animal fodder, but they came to be a staple, especially in Ireland, as they were well-suited to Ireland's damp climate and small holdings. The population grew in Ireland as a result, from 2 million, to 10 million. By 1780, the Irish were eating an estimated 3 kg of potatoes per day, meaning that when the "Root blight" (the Potato Blight) bit in 1845-46, it caused a massive cataclysmic famine in Ireland and by 1850 the Irish population had been reduced by 30%.